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MANEUVERING TOWARDS AN ENDGAME IN IRAN
by Dale Brown, 2009

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT Facebook.com/AuthorDaleBrown, 11/26/09

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' so-called nuclear watchdog group, has thrown up its hands and given up on trying to analyze Iran's nuclear program. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, the P5+1, failed again to get any concessions from Iran, just as the EU3 (France, England, and Germany) did in 2005. Sanctions against Iran are off and on and off the table.

If Iran's nuclear program is totally peaceful as they claim, why not just open all of their facilities up for inspection? Is this another Saddam Hussein/Kim Jong Il-type ploy to create enough doubt and fear in the world that no one dare strike? Is this a ploy to get some respect or increased standing amongst its Arab neighbors? Or is all the international condemnation and isolation being used as propaganda by Iran's leaders to explain away their economic situation, again like North Korea?

Whatever the real reason, things are getting close to the point where Israel, under hawk Benjamin Netanyahu, will have no choice but to strike before Iran can produce even a crude weapon. Pres. Obama will have little choice but to assist, because Israel by itself doesn't have the firepower to take out all of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' minelayers. If Iran manages to close the Strait of Hormuz and cut off 25% of the world's oil supply, the already bad global economic situation could get a hundred times worse.

I just read an analysis on UPI.com by Arnaud de Borchgrave saying that it would be almost impossible to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities from the air. I agree--but he misses the point. It's not necessary to destroy the nuclear facilities if Iran loses control of its skies and borders.

Look at the 1991 Gulf War. The goal was to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait. But did the Coalition bomb any targets in Kuwait? The Coalition, led by the U.S., first hit air defense, command-and-control, communications, and airfields in Iraq, not Kuwait. With its communications, air support, and logistics shut down, Iraqi forces had no choice but to retreat, and when they did they were cut down with ease. The ground war lasted just 3 days.

The same will happen in Iran. After an intense air campaign to destroy minelayers, air defense sites, command-and-control, and attack missile bases, Coalition air forces will be free to roam all across Iran, searching for weapon sites. Like in 1991, a few Scuds and minelayers will make it and deploy their weapons, but they won't disrupt shipping in the region for very long. Iran will deploy its irregular forces, such as the Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, and al-Quds, and they may succeed in staging some devastating attacks, but it won't be enough to stop the inevitable.

Iran must realize all this--they can't win a force-on-force fight with the United States. Are they hoping that there will be a backlash in the Muslim world against the Jews, Zionists, and Crusaders if Iran is attacked? That's a long shot. It didn't work for Usama bin Laden. Many of Iran's Arab neighbors, even fellow Shi'a, don't like the Persians and would be thankful if the U.S. and even Israel spanked them.

Whatever the reason, things look like they're approaching a tipping-point. Eventually a piece of evidence will be uncovered that says that Iran is weeks away from testing a nuclear device, or an Iranian device is on its way from North Korea, and the call will come in to the White House from Tel Aviv: we need to move, now.

Despite all his rhetoric that he is all about change, how he'll do it differently from Pres. Bush, and that the U.S. has to rejoin the world community rather than go its own way, I believe Pres. Obama will have little choice but to act.

But he has to do more than just open Iraqi airspace for Israeli jets--he'll have to order the bombers, fighters, jammers, and cruise missiles into the air. He can't do it halfway. That's what has me worried: if Pres. Obama doesn't commit to an all-out strike, hoping that a partial strike will cause the Iranians to not strike back, the conflict could be unnecessarily prolonged and costly.

Yes, Afghanistan is a major concern for Pres. Obama. But he could do nothing, and the situation could remain the same for a long time. Not so with Iran. He will have to decide that sanctions and talk won't work, and commit to an all-out fast knockout punch if that call from Tel Aviv or the flash report from the CIA comes in.

Is he up to it? I hope so.

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